Axion: Scenarios

Table of Contents

• Navigation
• Emissions And Energy Projections
  • Total Emissions
  • Carbon Intensity
  • Total Energy Use
• Transition Risk Scenarios Projections
  • Projected Carbon Cost
  • Projected Carbon Price
• Projection Assumptions
  • Projection Scenarios
  • Factor in Facility Emissions Targets
  • Energy Efficiency
  • Energy Mix
• Filters

Navigation

• Navigate to Insights and select Worldly Axion.
• This takes you to the Worldly Axion Overview page.

Select the Scenarios tab.

Emissions And Energy Projections

There are three Emissions and Energy projections to apply scenarios and filters to. These include:

• Total Emissions
• Carbon Intensity
• Total Energy Use

Total Emissions

Projected Total Emissions (kgCO2e) are shown over time broken down by major fuel source groupings. A full breakdown of each fuel type included in the different categories can be found in the Methodology.

Carbon Intensity

Overall Carbon Intensity (kg/MJ) data is shown over time and can be broken down by Country, Facility or Production Process by using the drop down box.

Source: Higg FEM

Total Energy Use

Modeled Energy Consumption (MJ) is displayed over time, broken down by major fuel source groupings. A full breakdown of each fuel type included in the different categories can be found in the Methodology.

Transition Risk Scenarios Projections

View projected facility Carbon Costs (US$) under different scenarios, which can be selected using the drop down menu:

• Low Emissions / Net Zero 2050 Aligned (IEA Net Zero Emissions by 2050)
• Moderate Emissions / Policy Progress (IEA Announced Pledges)
• High Emissions / Limited Progress (IEA Stated Policies)
• Manually Entered Amount

There is also an option to model a manually entered carbon price (e.g., internal or shadow price) which will be applied uniformly to all regions.

Adjust the Cost Pass Through slider to model the impact of different % carbon costs passed to you by the suppliers.

Click on Update Charts once you have adjusted the filters above to view the new data outputs in the graphs below.

Source: IEA

Projected Carbon Cost

The range of carbon costs (US$) displayed by country over time.

Projected Carbon Price

The range of carbon prices (US$/ton) displayed by country over time.

Projection Assumptions

There are four different assumptions available to toggle and see how they impact the projections listed above:

• Projection Scenarios
• Factor in Facility Emissions Targets
• Energy Efficiency
• Energy Mix

• Click Reset All to return your variables to the default settings. 
• Click Update Charts at the top of the page to view your new projections after altering any variables.

Projection Scenarios

Use the sliders, or directly enter figures into the % box to model the outcomes of your production share from your suppliers. Increase (more positive number) or decrease (more negative number) production volumes of facilities selected with the Production Volume Change slider (or enter directly into the % box). 

This can be used to model production or sourcing growth or decline as well as the share of production on emissions and energy use.

Toggles can be switched to factor in Grid Decarbonization projections under any of the different climate scenarios selected using the drop down box:

• Low Emissions / Net Zero 2050 Aligned (NGFS Net Zero 2050)
• Moderate Emissions / Policy Progress (NGFS Nationally Determined Contributions)
• High Emissions / Limited Progress (NGFS Current Policies)

For a breakdown of each scenario, refer to the Methodology.

Source: Higg FEM, IEA & NGFS

Factor in Facility Emissions Targets

Model the impact of applying facility decarbonization targets.

• Selecting Yes applies your facility’s current Emissions Targets and disables manual selection of Energy Efficiency and Energy Mix changes to avoid double counting with facility planned actions to achieve targets.
• Selecting No allows you to model specific Energy Efficiency and Energy Mix changes for selected facilities.

Source: Higg FEM

Energy Efficiency

Model the impact of changing the energy efficiency of selected facilities by selected target year. This can be done by adjusting the % Energy Efficiency slider to increase or decrease energy efficiency and changing the target year selected.

The energy efficiency change is applied proportionally for each projected year until the target efficiency increase or decrease is met by the target year. Energy Efficiency is calculated as a measure of energy consumption per unit of production.

Source: Higg FEM

Energy Mix

Model the impact of changing the fuel sources and energy mix for selected facilities over time. The average fuel mix across the selected facilities is presented as the current fuel mix. The user can then select a desired fuel mix by the target year (selected via the drop down menu). Major fuel sources are broken down and change of the mix by fuel source can be done by emerging the target mix in the ‘Future %’ box.

Energy mix values can be provided with up to 2 decimal place precision; the user can use the “apply the difference to make 100%” buttons to add any remainder to a specific fuel source. The user can also reset each energy source to the baseline (by using the ‘Reset to Current’ button) or reset all of them with the ‘Reset All’ button.

The total mix must equal 100% in the ‘Future Total’ box at the top of the section before data can be updated in the charts. If the total exceeds, or is less than 100% this box will be red and you will not be able to recalculate the output data. The change in energy mix will be calculated linearly to reach the target mix by the chosen year.

A full breakdown of each fuel type included in the different categories can be found in the Methodology.

Source: Higg FEM

Filters

The left-hand filter column automatically updates all metrics throughout the dashboard to reflect the filtered data set. Filters that are applied once are applied to all tabs within Worldly Axion. The dashboard filters enable users to organize and slice the data to quickly determine which facilities are best suited for intervention.

Adjust these filters to model different future states by country, facility type, production process and year. This enables more specific scenarios by facility, region or other combination of facilities based on filters. Further detail on how these metrics are defined can be found in the Methodology.